Rapid Increase in Antimony Prices [SMM Weekly Review of Spot Antimony Market]

       SMM March 14 News: Antimony prices continued to rise strongly this week, with manufacturers persistently raising quotes and showing evident reluctance to sell. Speculative funds were also actively involved in standing firm on quotes, with suppliers clearly intending to maintain high prices, and bullish voices were prevalent in the market. In the domestic antimony end-use market, downstream sectors such as flame retardants and PV industries were forced to restock after price hikes, with rigid orders being procured as prices climbed. However, due to tight market resources, suppliers were evidently withholding goods. While midstream and downstream markets remained cautious about future price trends, they showed slight signs of compromise. Antimony market prices surged significantly under the collective market effort. As of now, SMM antimony average prices are: 2# Low-Bismuth Antimony Ingot at 169,000 yuan/mt, 1# Antimony Ingot at 173,000 yuan/mt, 0# Antimony Ingot at 177,000 yuan/mt, and 2# High-Bismuth Antimony Ingot at an average price of 166,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, this week's antimony trioxide market prices, as of now, show SMM antimony trioxide average prices at 145,000 yuan/mt for 99.5% and 157,000 yuan/mt for 99.8%.

       Currently, the market generally believes that the recent surge in antimony prices is mainly driven by expectations of reduced supply. On one hand, export controls and higher overseas antimony prices have led to a decrease in the supply of overseas antimony ore entering the domestic market. On the other hand, due to cold weather, antimony mines in northern regions such as Xinjiang and Gansu are unable to operate, further tightening domestic antimony supply. Coupled with some manufacturers' post-Chinese New Year price hike intentions, antimony prices have risen sharply in recent weeks. From the demand side, the growth potential of antimony's three main downstream application sectors is currently relatively small. Taking PV glass as an example, its operating rate has not returned to the rapid growth of previous years and even declined in January and February this year. Future growth in raw material demand for flame retardants, glass, polyester, and other industries remains uncertain, but the likelihood of further deterioration in industries like glass is relatively small. However, the current high antimony prices have imposed significant cost pressure on downstream sectors such as PV, flame retardants, and polyester catalysts, which may lead to the search for substitutes or reduced usage in these sectors. In terms of supply, as the weather warms, northern antimony mines are expected to resume operations, which may alleviate the tight supply situation. For smelting enterprises, the consensus of "resources as king" remains unchanged, and competition for domestic antimony resources may intensify in the future. Whether antimony prices can maintain their current high levels or even continue to rise will still depend on changes in the supply-demand relationship, particularly whether the demand side can provide sustained support.

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